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                                                                                                                                                                          网上捕鱼赢钱:瑞达期货:盘面压力仍大,料玉米反弹受阻

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年02月19日 17:20 来源:万叶红新闻网

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:盘面压力仍大,料玉米反弹受阻)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况:C1905日内增仓上涨,最高报1828,最低报1812,收盘1823,较上一交易日+0.28%;成交量39.2万,-1.81万;持仓1029152,+3354,基差15,-7;C5-9月价差-31,-1。CS1905日内增仓下跌,最高报2277,最低报2259,收盘2269,较上一交易日-0.04%;成交量14.2万,-280;持仓212210,+3346,基差181,-55;CS5-9月价差-37,+2。

                                                                                                                                                                          消息:1、截止2月15日,山东地区加工利润亏损54.9元/吨,河北地区利润亏损11元/吨,河南盈利50元/吨,黑龙江地区利盈利48元/吨,吉地区利润盈利66.2元吨。2、截至2月15日,广东港内贸和外贸玉米库存总量106.1万吨,环比增加42万吨;截至2月8日,北方港口总库存336.5万吨,环比增加9.3万吨,同比下降62.9万吨。

                                                                                                                                                                          现货市场:玉米锦州港报价1838,+0。淀粉河北报价2430,-30;吉林报价2400,-50;山东报价2570,+0。(单位:元/吨)

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单库存:玉米仓单32675手,+0,位于历史较高水平。淀粉仓单2841手,+0,位于历史平均水平。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:C1905合约前20名多头持仓386358,-5517,前20名空头持仓346702,+15192,前20名净多持仓39656,-13637;CS1905合约前20名多头持仓85339,+2883,前20名空头持仓72769,+2444,前20名净多持仓12570,-468。(单位:手)

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:供应方面,粮农手中余粮同比仍高,节后售粮压力大。中美贸易关系的逐渐转暖,带来一定利空情绪。需求方面,生猪养殖行业产能出清之后,饲料需求尚未恢复,需求承压。不过有消息称节后国家将加大收储力度,且市场传言19年临储玉米拍卖可能会延期至5或6月,给市场带来一定提振作用,但盘面压力仍大,反弹难以持续。整体而言,预计玉米期价后期走势为偏弱震荡运行。C1905合约的压力位1840元/吨,支撑位1800元/吨,建议空单继续持有,止损1835。淀粉方面,主要受原料玉米的影响,随玉米的波动而波动。此外节后淀粉需求偏弱,企业库存大幅累积,淀粉价格承压。不过淀粉企业开机率大幅下滑,给淀粉市场一定的支撑作用。整体而言,预计淀粉后期偏弱震荡走势为主。CS1905的压力位2300元/吨,建议空单继续持有,止损2285。

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